New strategies of the west in the Middle East region
From a western viewpoint, in regards to the security issues, UK will play a balancing role and the US that of the promoter of the security changes with France and Germany playing the supportive roles.
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On the sideline of the 21st Tehran Exhibition of Press and News Agencies, Ibrahim Motaqi, Iranian political analyst and professor at University of Tehran, related on the latest strategies of the west in the Middle East region.
Q: Since the last legs in the presidency of George W Bush (junior), there have been words on decrease of the role of western Asia in the global strategy of the US and more importance of Eastern Asia. What is our view on that?
A: Any country which has a role in the global axis of power will stabilize its place in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. The historical record of the region since 1519 proves that the power equation in the Persian Gulf, Middle East region and the world of Islam plays an important role on the military and security bases.
Portuguese, Polish and he Britons have stabilized their stance in the Middle East. Since 1968, when Britain decided to change their military zones, power models have changed.
When the Islamic Revolution was formed in Iran, bipolar doctrine turned into the axis of power and security strategy in the Persian Gulf. Islamic Revolution changed the equation of power and politics. Since 1980 and presidency of Carter in the US, the country organized rapid reaction force in the Persian Gulf, the force which was supposed to substitute the strategic power of the US. Carter thought geopolitical territory cannot be in power vacuum; therefore, an explosion and chaos will prevail everywhere.
Following Carter, Ronald Regan, changed the rapid reaction force into the central force and there is no sign that the central headquarter will change in the region. This forces is supposed to cover 19 countries including some southwestern countries (like Pakistan) to Somalia, Ethiopia to Northern Africa and the Arab Middle East.
All territories plagued by security crisis: Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and Afghanistan are within the security territory of the US under the command of the central territory.
Here in Iran we have Quds ground and air forces. The US also has a similar force. In this line three sources can be referred to:
Four- year report by the US defense ministry
The US National security report
Strategic report that was compiled following the empowerment of Ashton Carter as the Defense Minister.
Highlighting the Southwestern Asia is the issue that the US is planning for the third decade of 21st century. The US thinks that security and stability will be prevailing in the region for the next decade but China is appearing as a rising power and that will leave its trace in the security ambiance of the region.
Q: What policy is the Western world, particularly the US, pursuing in regards to its kingdom allies in the region? What reaction does it have in regards to the rising importance of Russia in the political and military equations in countries like Egypt, Syria and Yemen?
A: The fact is that UK backs royal systems and the royal and kingdom systems will prevail in the Persian Gulf region at least for the next decade?
Some believe that kingdom governments have created aristocratic systems which are different from the liberal morale of the west. The first principle in realism is that foreign policy is different from domestic diplomacy of every country.
The issue of power and its benefits play the major role for the American and British role models. The return of the paramilitary forces to power in Egypt prove that Daesh can play a role in opposition with Syria and Iraq, but once it achieves more power, then it will have problems with Saudi Arabia and Qatar because these are aggressive forces paying special attention to Jihad. In their view Jihad is the number one pillar of religion.
Aggressive version of Daesh Islam will find the grounds for empowerment in Saudi Arabia same way that it is a threat for the benefits of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Amid this situation, UK and the US will set the support for the royal families as number one priority in its agenda at least until the third decade of the 21st century.
Power territory division is the major criterion for the behavior model between Russia and the US.
Russia does not play a challenging role in the security objectives of the US. The US on the other hand understands the concerns of Russia. Strategic logicality means that even if the great powers are rivals for each other, they set the interests of their rival on top of their agenda.
Q: How do you define presence of the great powers in the region, in regards to the contrasts in the regional policies and economic interests of the western countries?
A: A part was founded by the American conservative parties of 1998 and 1999 and its influences can be seen in the security policies of Bush in the Middle East region and that is in relation with the constructive destruction theory changing the political system of the governments were changed and this can be seen in the Islamic Awakening though its future outcomes will be quite threatening for the national security of the US.
Now some new roles can be defined for the regional players.
From a western viewpoint, in regards to the security issues, UK will play a balancing role and the US that of the promoter of the security changes with France and Germany playing the supportive roles.
Great powers have come to a strategic agreement amid the present situation. This agreement has both geopolitical and ideological nature among western countries. In this situation, western countries and their regional allies do not show much tendency for accepting a situation based on aggression and prefer their behavioral models to be a reproduction of cooperation meaning that they prefer to resolve their disagreements in a process of power equation so that the grounds for independent countries, like Iran, is not provided
