Deterrence equations in Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab; the decline of American hegemony and the erosion of Saudi strategies
Recent developments in the region indicate that the deterrence equations in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea have entered a new phase – a phase in which the ability of the United States and the Zionist regime to impose their will on regional allies, particularly Saudi Arabia, has faced serious challenges.
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According to the Taghrib News Agency (TNA), the Yemeni newspaper Al-Thawra, in a note by Yahya al-Rabiee regarding the decline of American hegemony in the region, wrote: "The United States and the Zionist regime are trying to transfer the main burden of regional confrontation to their allies. In this framework, Jonathan Schanzer, Senior Vice President for Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, has criticized Saudi Arabia's policy towards the war, and from his perspective, considered what Riyadh calls 'strategic neutrality' or 'preventive diplomacy' as an unacceptable approach for Washington and Tel Aviv."
Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, in a contact with Donald Trump, called for de-escalation and the cancellation of large-scale attacks against Iran, because Riyadh is concerned about the direct consequences of Iran's response to its vital infrastructure and oil facilities.
In this regard, Schanzer also described the so-called "STEP" coalition between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan as lacking the practical capability to directly enter the war, and placed Saudi Arabia before three options: direct entry into the war, paying its full financial and military costs, or losing US political and security support.
The failure of the "invincible power" narrative and the limitations of traditional arsenals
This note considers the current developments as a sign of a shift in the balance of power in the region, and believes that the United States faces serious limitations against Iran's capabilities and the Yemeni armed forces.
The author, referring to the Yemen war, introduces it as an example of the failure of Saudi Arabia's military superiority and its Western supporters, and writes that despite the Saudi-led coalition's possession of advanced weapons, extensive airstrikes, and naval and air superiority, this coalition could not achieve its strategic goals.
In contrast, Yemen's missile and drone capabilities and asymmetric warfare tactics have shown that advanced military technology alone is not sufficient for victory in prolonged and attritional wars.
Disruption of exports and reduction of oil revenues
Another part of the note focuses on the economic consequences of this situation for Saudi Arabia. The author believes that the maritime restrictions in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab have increased the vulnerability of the Saudi economy.
Saudi Aramco has transferred part of its oil exports to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but this route has also faced restrictions imposed at Bab al-Mandab. As a result, some tankers have been forced to use the Cape of Good Hope route, which increases the distance and costs of fuel, insurance, and transportation.
Display of development projects to efforts to maintain liquidity
The author further links military pressures to Saudi Arabia's financial situation, and says: "The budget deficit, increasing public debt, and pressure on the resources of the Public Investment Fund have made the country's economic situation more difficult."
In this framework, Saudi Arabia's major "Vision 2030" projects have also come under criticism. The escalation of defense costs and the decline in oil revenues have caused the implementation of some major projects to face delays or revisions, and have driven Riyadh towards maintaining liquidity and prioritizing sectors with faster returns.
The decline of hegemony and the formation of new equations
The author believes that the period of managing regional developments according to America's wishes and relying on Western security umbrellas is coming to an end. From the perspective of this note, the military and economic pressures resulting from maritime developments, increased transportation and insurance costs, the budget deficit, and the difficulty of implementing some major projects are signs of Saudi Arabia's strategic vulnerability to regional developments.
The United States and the Zionist regime also face challenges even in ensuring their own security, and cannot guarantee the same level of security support that they once promised to their regional allies. The author believes that the deterrence capability of Iran and Yemen, along with the political will of Tehran and Sana'a, has led to the formation of new equations in the region – equations that indicate the gradual decline of American hegemony and the weakening of its traditional alliances in the region.
