With May 7 deadline approaching fast, experts are trying to figure out how the huge British Muslim population will participate in general elections, with many ruling out theories of “block voting” where a particular group only cast its vote toward one designated party.
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"Every five years or so, someone claims that this or that religious (or non-religious group) might swing the election,” Nick Spencer, research director of Theos Think Tank, told OnIslam.net.
“Politics isn't like that, however, and this report shows that religious block votes do not exist in Britain as many claim they do in America.”
Spencer was referring to a survey he co-authored in 2010 which claimed to have tracked the relation between politics and religion, offering an in-depth analysis of Britons' voting habits.
Based on his organization’s findings, Spencer said Muslims in 2010 tended to strongly vote Labour, as did Hindus and Sikhs to a lesser extent.
By contrast, the Jewish vote was more likely to go to the Conservatives and Buddhist to the Liberal Democrats."
Yet, in 2015, things have changed greatly for Muslims.
With Muslims set to become the world’s religious majority by 2070 according to a study published by the Pew Research Center in April 2, Muslims have become an important political demographic, regardless of how much prejudices and antipathy certain parties might harbor towards them.
In the UK, many analysts point that Muslim voters now concentrate more on things that matter to their lives, including taxes, education, employment and the NHS (National Health Service).
Experts say British Muslims have become increasingly disenfranchised with mainstream parties.
This was evident in 2012, in Bradford's by election, when George Galloway from the Respect party, scored a landslide victory by taking a Labour safe seat in Bradford West.
Muslims in the UK are said to be facing an increase in Islamophobia, job discrimination hence pushing them to look for what experts describe as an alternative.
Growing wary of politicians, Muslims are more interested in figuring out which prime minister hopeful will tackle rising Islamophobia, letting fears rather than reason do the political talking.
Will Muslims Vote?
While political experts, such as Randy Thornton, estimate that British Muslims have come a long way since 2010 regarding political engagement, many people still feel alienated by the political class.
"Ethnic minority turnout is historically lower. I would expect it to be lower than white British turnout, but that is only a small sample," Dr Roger Mortimore, director of political research at Ipsos Mori, said.
Zeenat Khan, a 23 year law student from Crawley told OnIslam that while she personally intends to cast her vote on May 7, many of her Muslim peers have already said they will not, but not necessarily for the reasons people expect.
"Most of my friends and family members will not vote this May. Not because they don't care or feel it would be religiously wrong,” she said.
“They have consciously decided not to vote because they do not believe in Britain's democratic system anymore."
Mohammed Al Omeisy, a British Yemeni businessman based in Swansea told OnIslam he will also pass this year.
"Whether Labour, Conservative or Independent, policies are the same … the rhetoric might be different but the outcome is intrinsically identical, so why bother? Britain's democracy is broken. Parties are only interested in getting seats not implementing policies which will benefit the people. Our voices don't matter to them," he said.
He added, "I remember when over a million people demonstrated against going to war in Iraq … did Tony Blair [Prime Minister at the time] changed his mind? No! Did he even attempt to engage in a democratic dialogue with the British public? No! And yet we are made to believe that voting on May 7 will make a difference? I think not … I'd rather stay home and have a nice cup of tea!"
With the upcoming political elections in the UK, a new initiative, the Muslim Manifesto, was launched at the House of Lords on February 23rd.
The Muslim Manifesto is a call-to-action and a set of policy recommendations targeting all Muslim and non-Muslim British politicians in local councils and parliament.
A Financial Times opinion poll showed that Britain is the most suspicious nation about Muslims, estimated to number 2.8 million according to 2013 census.
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