What to Expect Following the IAEA BoG's Anti-Iran Resolution
The IAEA's board of governors passed a resolution this Friday urging Tehran to allow IAEA inspectors to visit two nuclear sites. How will the resolution affect the course of developments concerning Iran's nuclear deal?
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The IAEA's board of governors passed a resolution this Friday urging Tehran to allow IAEA inspectors to visit two nuclear sites. How will the resolution affect the course of developments concerning Iran's nuclear deal?
The IAEA resolution, put forward by France, Germany and Britain and backed by the US, saw 25 affirmative votes and 2 negative votes, with 7 abstentions.
It "calls on Iran to fully cooperate with the Agency and satisfy the Agency's requests without any further delay, including by providing prompt access to the locations specified by the Agency".
The IAEA aims to assess whether atomic activities have took place in the two sites in the early 2000s.
The agency says it suspects the two sites might have been a scene to undeclared nuclear activity.
The request appears to have its roots in allegations made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the 2019 UNGA held last September.
During the summit, Netanyahu accused Iran of maintaining a secret atomic warehouse in southern Tehran.
Iran has so far rejected IAEA's requests, arguing they are in breach of the body's stature.
But IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says Iran must avoid taking a selective approach to its IAEA obligations.
Grossi, who appears to have taken a harder line on Tehran compared to his predecessor Yukiya Amano, said on Friday it would be "absolutely unacceptable" if a precedence were to be set that countries can implement their IAEA agreements selectively.
The resolution follows reports in March and June by the newly-appointed Grossi voicing concerns over Iran's refusal to accept IAEA requests.
The IAEA already enjoys access to Iran's atomic sites as part of the 2015 nuclear deal.
The agency conducts dozens of inspections annually and has confirmed Iran's compliance with the deal in various reports. How Far the EU Will Go?
This resolution, the first of its kind since 2012, is non-binding. But it can prepare the ground for increased nuclear pressure on Tehran.
The US has already urged the council to consider next steps on Iran.
Jackie Wolcott, US ambassador to the IAEA, said on Friday," Iran should not look at this board meeting closing as a free pass until September. If they don’t promptly act, the board will have to consider next steps."
The council could refer the case to the UN Security Council as a major threat against international peace and security.
But the E3 has announced they are not after eager to bring the case to the UN council to try to get an anti-Iran resolution.
Moreover, it will be an extremely hard job to convince Russia and China not to veto such a UNSC resolution on Iran.
Separately, the UK, France and Germany could use the nuclear deal's dispute resolution mechanism to push Iran to allow the inspections.
But such a process could lead to the termination of the pact, an outcome the EU appears unwilling to see. Iran's Likely Response
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has excoriated the resolution, saying Iran "has nothing to hide".
And Iran's Foreign Ministry has described the resolution as a "disappointing step".
China and Russia have supported Iran's position, with the former calling the resolution "irresponsible" and the latter describing it "counterproductive".
Tehran says the IAEA's access submissions were based on false reports by Israel and the agency has not provided evidence justifying such a request.
Iran’s IAEA Ambassador Kazem Gharibabadi said on Friday the country would not open its territory to nuclear inspections because of continuous allegations by its arch enemies, vowing Iran will take appropriate measures in reaction to the IAEA resolution.
Tehran has already taken several steps away from the nuclear accord, in retaliation for the US walking out of the pact and restoring anti-Iran sanctions.
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif threatened last January that Iran will walk out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty in case the UN Security Council passes another anti-Iran resolution.
The E3 is unwilling to take the IAEA case to the UN Security council.
But the European governments appear to be backing the US calls to prevent the lifting of the UN arms sanctions on Iran in October.
In a statement on Friday, the E3 said that "we believe that the planned lifting of the UN conventional arms embargo next October would have major implications for regional security and stability".
The US has voiced concerns over the prospects of the lifting of the sanctions considering what it calls Iran's nuclear and Middle East threats.
The case of Iran's arms sanctions might push Iran to take some serious retaliatory steps.
However, it seems unlikely that Tehran moves to escalate tensions before the US presidential elections in November.
Iran has ruled out nuclear negotiations with Donald Trump. But the replacement of the incumbent US president might pave the way for new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US.
